RESEARCH GRANT
Researcher, Reindustrialising the United Kingdom, in collaboration with the John Mills Institute for Prosperity, with Stephen Millard (PI), Paul Mortimer-Lee, Kemar Whyte and Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Ongoing Project in 2022;
Co-Investigator (CoI), ESRC Commercialising Research out of Social Sciences, with Stephen Millard and Neil Lakeland, Ongoing project in 2022;
Principal Investigator (PI), Incorporating Alternative Data Sources into Price Indices, In Collaboration with Office for National Statistics, ESCoE, with Dr Garry Young, Dr Hande Kucuk, and Janine Boshoff, Jan 2020 - Nov 2021 (£70,000);
PI, Social Benefits: Impact, Accounting and Tracking, ESRC IAA Business Boost Project, with Alberto De Biasio, Jan 2021 - March 2022 (£30,000);
Co-Investigator (CoI), Analysing and Forecasting Social and Economic Value and Impacts for the University of Oxford Energy System Accelerator (TESA) Project, In collaboration with CoLab Ltd, with Hugh Mulcahey, Alberto De Biasio, Feb 2020 – Aug 2020 (£1,000,000);
Co-Investigator (CoI), AI based Big Data Platform for International Trade, In Collaboration with Coriolis Ltd, Innovate UK, with Ana Rincon-Aznar, Dr Rebecca Harding, Amit Kara, Dr Manuel Tong Koecklin, Dr Larissa Marioni, Sep 2019- Mar 2021 (£1000,000);
PI, UCL Global Engagement Fund: Big Data Analysis on Real Estate Markets in the UK and China, In Collaboration with Tsinghua University & Renmin University of China, with Prof Yanfen Huang, 2017 (£2,000);
PI, L’Institut Europlace de Finance Research Grant: Big Data Analytics and Prediction of Individual Behavior and Risk. In Collaboration with Université Paris-Dauphine & Groupama, 2016-2017 (€10,000);
CoI, EPSRC Impact Acceleration Award: Developing Innovative Statistics Based around Big Data, Text-Mining and Computational Modelling, In Collaboration with Office of National Statistics, with Prof Michelle Baddeley and Prof Jim Meikle, 2016-2018 (£14,610);
CoI, Innovate-UK, Knowledge Transfer Partnership Grant: Developing Innovative Construction and Macroeconomic Forecasting Tools, with Prof Michelle Baddeley and Prof Jim Meikle. In Collaboration with AECOM, 2015-2016 (£59,260);
PI, Jim Gatheral Grant: Financial Time Series Models. In Collaboration with University of Glasgow, 2012-2013 (£3,000).
PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS
1. Application of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Analytics and Forecasting
(1) Cracking the Myths of Big Data Forecasting with TRUST: An Innovative Framework for Analysing and Predicting Human Behaviour, published by The Oxford University Invariant Society, Oxford, UK, 02/2017
(2) Predicting the outcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum: the information from the Ether (With R. MacDonald), University of Glasgow Economics Working Papers, No. 2015-05, featured on Guardian, Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, etc. (link) and BBC Scotland on 10 Feb 2015.
(3) Forecasting the 2015 General Election with Internet Big Data: An Application of the TRUST Framework (With R. MacDonald), University of Glasgow Economics Working Papers, No. 2016-03, featured Three Times on BBC Scotland on 28, 30 April and 6 May 2015
(4) Polls, Lies and Artificial Intelligence (民调、谎言和人工智能),published , 21st Century Business Review (21世纪商业评论),Dec 2016 (特约评论)
2. Alternative Data Analytics for Economic Measurement and Index Development
(1) Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current practices (With J. Boshoff, and G. Young), ESCoE Technical Report 07, ISSN 2631-3588, 07/2020
(2) Applying Machining Learning for Outlier Detection: A Universal Methodology Framework for Scanner and Web-Scraped Data Sources (With J. Boshoff, H. Kucuk and G. Young), ESCoE Working Paper, 06/2021
(3) Price indices improvements of Construction development: Impact of improvements to construction statistics (With M. John), published by Office for National Statistics in 09/2018.
(4) Investigating the Indirect Consequences of Advancements in Information Technology on US Productivity (With K. Chan), 2018, SSRN working paper
(5) Forecasting Housing Markets with Artificial-Intelligence-Based Big Data Analytics, accepted for presentation at the 2020 Royal Economic Society Conference.
3. COVID-19 Modelling and Forecasting
(1) The effect of multiple interventions to reduce healthcare demand for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks: a modelling study, published in Nature Series, Sci Rep 11, 3110 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82170-y
(2) An Extended COVID-19 Epidemiological Model with Vaccination and Multiple Interventions for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in the UK, revise and resubmit, Vaccines, DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.10.21252748
(3) NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Trade and the unequal race to the Covid-19 vaccine, Published (2021) National Institute Global Economic Outlook, Vol. 0(1), PP. 19-25.
(4) Feasibility of Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in the UK by Rolling Interventions, published at MedRxiv, DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.05.20054429
4. Global Economic Modelling and Forecasting
(1) Institutional Investors, Real Earnings Management and Cost of Equity: evidence from high-tech firms listed in China. Published, (2019) Emerging Market Finance and Trade (SSCI), DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1650348
(2) Global economic outlook – Vaccinations and US fiscal stimulus boost growth prospects, May 2021. Published (2021) National Institute Economic Review 256, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2021.17
(3) Global economic outlook – the world in its grip: Covid-19, February 2021. Published, (2021) National Institute Economic Review, 255, pp. 5-18, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2021.7
(4) World Economy Global Outlook Overview, November 2020. Published, (2020) National Institute Economic Review, 254, pp. F44-F90, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.44
(5) THE WORLD ECONOMY: Global outlook overview, Aug 2020. Published, (2020) National Institute Economic Review (SSCI), 253, pp. F35-F88, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.33
(6) The World Economy: Global outlook overview, May 2020. Published, (2020) National Institute Economic Review (SSCI), 252, pp. F44-F88, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.21
(7) The World Economy: Global outlook overview, Feb 2020. Published, (2020) National Institute Economic Review (SSCI), 251, pp. F35-F79, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.12
(8) The World Economy: World Overview, Nov 2019. Published, (2019) National Institute Economic Review (SSCI), 250(1), pp. F38-F52, DOI: 10.1177/002795011925000105
(9) The World Economy: World Overview, Aug 2019. Published, (2019) National Institute Economic Review (SSCI), 249(1), pp. F44-F54, DOI: 10.1177/002795011924900105
5. Applied Econometrics
(1) Cointegrated VAR Analysis of a Hybrid DSGE and SVAR Model, published, the Proceedings of the 2007 Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society, Taipei.
(2) Forecasting Corporate Business Failure with an Innovative Model: An Application on UK Construction Companies (With Y. S. Leow)
6. International Finance and Trade
(1) Does Public R&D Complement or Crowd-out Private R&D in Pre and Post economic Crisis of 2008? Published (2020) Journal of Applied Economics (SSCI), DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2020.1762341
(2) GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND ECONOMIC DISLOCATIONS: INTRODUCTION, May 2020. Published (2020) National Institute Economic Review, 252, pp. R1-R3, DOI: 10.1017/nie.2020.13
(3) China and the United Kingdom: Economic Relationships, (2020), NIESR Landscape Series No. 1
(4) Dual Listed Stock Price Disparity: Investment Behaviour Under Uncertainty (With M. Baddeley and Y. Liao) R&R to CCPF-JIFMIM Symposium
(5) Regimes of Japan’s Currency Interventions: A Microstructure Analysis with Speculation and Sentiment (With R. MacDonald), University of Glasgow Economics Working Papers, No. 2016-06.
(6) Microstructure Analysis of Currency Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Case Study of Mexican Peso (With R. MacDonald)
(7) Intervention, Speculation and Sentiment: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis of the JPY/USD Rate (With R. MacDonald).
7. Selected Media Reports
(1) The Times (2020) Op-Ed Only a limited UK-EU trade agreement can be reached by December
(2) Xinhua Headlines: Europe eager to resume work, production to fight COVID-19 fallout, Xinhua News, 15 May 2020
(3) 财经观察:海外专家对中国经济信心不减, 新华社, 2020年4月24日
(4) 新冠疫情将给全球经济带来巨大但暂时的负面影响, 新华社专访, 2020年4月11日
(5) Interview: COVID-19 to have massive impact on global economy, 09 April 2020 (新华社专访)
(6) 专访:中国经济稳健增长对世界至关重要——访英国国家经济社会研究院首席经济学家毛旭新,新华社通稿,2019年6月25日。
(7) 财经观察:英国战疫经济“礼包”能否奏效,新华社, 2020年4月4日
(8) Xinhua Headlines: Work resumption in China raises hope for virus-hit European economies, Xinhua News, 15 Mar 2020
(9) Interview: Sci-tech innovation board latest milestone of China's capital market opening-up and reform, Xinhua News, 26 Jun 2019 (新华社专访)
(10) 专访: 英国国家经济社会研究院首席经济学家毛旭新:中国正向着高质量增长阶段迈进,经济日报,2019年11月22日。
(11) Yearender: Closer China-Europe ties to inspire confidence amid global economic uncertainties, Xinhua News, 18 Dec 2019
(12) 2019,世界经济十字路口迎风前行, 新华社特稿,2019年12月15日。
(13) 国际社会积极评价中美就第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致,新华社综述,2019年12月13日。
(14) 英国舆论认为“汇率操纵国”论调源自政治动机,新华社综述,2019年8月9日。
(15) 财经观察:中国经济提质增效释放“新魅力”, 新华社综述,2019年7月25日
(16) Economic Watch: China's economy resilient, rebalanced in H1, Xinhua News, 3 Jul 2019
(17) 稳健仍是货币政策主基调 逆周期调节不搞"大水漫灌",人民日报海外版,2019年7月2日
(18) 中流击水 破浪前行——从基层调研把脉2019年中国经济上半程,新华社,2019年7月1日
(19) 中国经济的巨大韧性和潜力是世界“福音”——G20各国财经学者点评中国经济发展,新华社综述,2019年6月27日。
(20) 香港问题评论系列: 双城记、自由行、楼市、双非, 搜狐财经,2014年9月30日 (特约主笔)。
(21) 城乡差距的统计误区和真实挑战——中国收入分配问题研究报告(下) ,published, 中国证券报,2010年10月14日 (项目研究助理)。
(22) 城乡差距的统计误区和真实挑战——中国收入分配问题研究报告(上) ,published, 中国证券报,2010年9月30日 (项目研究助理)。
(23) 城市化进程中楼市的战略定位和制度框架——中国房地产发展研究报告(下) ,published ,中国证券报,2010年7月8日 (项目研究助理)。
(24) 城市化进程中楼市的战略定位和制度框架——中国房地产发展研究报告(上) ,published, 中国证券报,2010年7月1日 (项目研究助理)。
SCHOLARSHIP & AWARD
National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM) Bursary on Gathering & Analysing Twitter & Youtube data (£400), 2017
ABTA Doctoral Research Award on Management Sciences (£100), UCL, 2015
Glasgow University Postgraduate Scholarship and Scottish Overseas Research Award (£66,000), 2010-2014
The Econometric Society Australasian Meeting Grant (£1,000+ AU$ 500), 2012
Universitas 21 Doctoral Research Grant on International Finance (£1,000), 2012
Tinbergen Institute Full Scholarship Award (€10,000), 2008-2009
European Commission Erasmus Mundus Scholarship for Mathematics and Economics (€42,000), 2006-2008
The Econometric Society Far Eastern Meeting Travel Grant (€1,000), 2007
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Research Fund Reviewer for National Science Center, Poland
Referee for Economic Modelling, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Building Research & Information, National Institute of Economic Review
RECENT PRESENTATIONS
The 2021 ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement, London, UK, 05/2021
The 2020 Royal Economic Society Conference, Belfast, UK, 03/2020
Big Data Housing Prediction, National Bank of Poland, 12/2019
12th South-Eastern European Economic Research Workshop, Bank of Albania, 12/2018
CCPF-JIFMIM Symposium, Guanzhou, China, 06/2018 and Dar, Tanzania, 12/2018
2018 International Conference on China Urban Development, University of Glasgow, 07/2018
Symposium on the 40th Anniversary of China's Urban Housing System Reform (Keynote Speech), Renmin University of China, 06/2018
The Oxford University Invariant Society (Keynote Speech), Oxford, UK, 02/2017
Economics and Finance Seminar, UCL, London, UK, 03/2016
The 7th International Finance and Banking Society (IFABS) Conference, Hang Zhou, China, 06/2015
The 2015 Royal Economic Society PhD Meetings, University College London, UK, 01/2015
The 3rd European Conference on Banking and the Economy, University of Southampton, UK,10/2014
The Econometric Society Australasian Meeting in 2012, Melbourne, Australia, 07/2012
The 2012 Royal Economic Society Easter School, University of Birmingham, UK, 04/2012
The Universitas 21 Doctoral Research Conference in Business, University of Connecticut, USA, 04/2012
Annual Meetings of the Scottish Graduate Programme in Economics, Crieff, UK, 01/2011&2012